Hardwoodist Research InstituteBureau of Decision Studies
Marcus Smart
4.41
Irrational Confidence
-0.36
Confidence
willingness to put it up
-0.89
Merit
what the record warranted
The Bureau's readingRational Unconfidence — he deferred, and the record agreed he should.
In context
The roster, by irrational confidence · 2025–26
A disciplined room.
LeBron James
5
Austin Reaves
4
Marcus Smart
4
Luka Dončić
4
Gabe Vincent
4
Deandre Ayton
4
Jaxson Hayes
4
Luke Kennard
4
Rui Hachimura
4
Jarred Vanderbilt
4
Jake LaRavia
4
Marcus Smart highlighted · bar = IC (0–100)
Among the 2025–26 field
60th percentile · #144 of 359 · -0.4σ vs the season mean
All-time, since 1997
60thpercentile
#3,784 of 9,465
Signals on file
29
Iso possessions
5.0%
Iso share
0.97
Iso PPP
2.9%
Fadeaway rate
16.3%
Pull-up rate
19
Clutch attempts
9.3
Points / game
15.4%
Usage
54.7%
True shooting