Hardwoodist Research InstituteBureau of Decision Studies
Deandre Ayton
4.00
Irrational Confidence
-0.57
Confidence
willingness to put it up
+2.64
Merit
what the record warranted
The Bureau's readingIrrational Unconfidence — he deferred — though the record says he should have shot.
In context
The roster, by irrational confidence · 2025–26
A disciplined room.
LeBron James
5
Austin Reaves
4
Marcus Smart
4
Luka Dončić
4
Gabe Vincent
4
Deandre Ayton
4
Jaxson Hayes
4
Luke Kennard
4
Rui Hachimura
4
Jarred Vanderbilt
4
Jake LaRavia
4
Deandre Ayton highlighted · bar = IC (0–100)
Among the 2025–26 field
47th percentile · #183 of 359 · -0.4σ vs the season mean
All-time, since 1997
51stpercentile
#4,638 of 9,465
Signals on file
—
Iso possessions
—
Iso share
—
Iso PPP
3.7%
Fadeaway rate
4.5%
Pull-up rate
9
Clutch attempts
12.5
Points / game
16.7%
Usage
67.6%
True shooting