Hardwoodist Research InstituteBureau of Decision Studies
Luka Dončić
4.35
Irrational Confidence
+2.83
Confidence
willingness to put it up
+1.55
Merit
what the record warranted
The Bureau's readingRational Confidence — he shot it himself, and the record warranted it.
In context
The roster, by irrational confidence · 2025–26
A disciplined room.
LeBron James
5
Austin Reaves
4
Marcus Smart
4
Luka Dončić
4
Gabe Vincent
4
Deandre Ayton
4
Jaxson Hayes
4
Luke Kennard
4
Rui Hachimura
4
Jarred Vanderbilt
4
Jake LaRavia
4
Luka Dončić highlighted · bar = IC (0–100)
Among the 2025–26 field
59th percentile · #147 of 359 · -0.4σ vs the season mean
All-time, since 1997
59thpercentile
#3,860 of 9,465
Signals on file
314
Iso possessions
16.8%
Iso share
1.17
Iso PPP
11.5%
Fadeaway rate
49.0%
Pull-up rate
44
Clutch attempts
33.5
Points / game
38.1%
Usage
61.6%
True shooting