Hardwoodist Research InstituteBureau of Decision Studies
Sam Merrill
3.92
Irrational Confidence
-0.42
Confidence
willingness to put it up
+1.39
Merit
what the record warranted
The Bureau's readingIrrational Unconfidence — he deferred — though the record says he should have shot.
In context
The roster, by irrational confidence · 2025–26
A pair of gunners.
Dennis Schröder
52
James Harden
44
Donovan Mitchell
7
Darius Garland
5
De'Andre Hunter
5
Lonzo Ball
4
Jarrett Allen
4
Keon Ellis
4
Sam Merrill
4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
4
Dean Wade
4
Evan Mobley
4
Craig Porter Jr.
4
Thomas Bryant
4
Sam Merrill highlighted · bar = IC (0–100)
Among the 2025–26 field
38th percentile · #218 of 359 · -0.4σ vs the season mean
All-time, since 1997
40thpercentile
#5,714 of 9,465
Signals on file
—
Iso possessions
—
Iso share
—
Iso PPP
1.2%
Fadeaway rate
27.1%
Pull-up rate
19
Clutch attempts
12.8
Points / game
17.0%
Usage
64.4%
True shooting