Hardwoodist Research InstituteBureau of Decision Studies
Jimmy Butler III
7.62
Irrational Confidence
+0.55
Confidence
willingness to put it up
-0.14
Merit
what the record warranted
The Bureau's readingIrrational Confidence — he shot it himself — past what the record warranted.
In context
The roster, by irrational confidence · 2025–26
A lone gunner.
De'Anthony Melton
44
Pat Spencer
19
Jonathan Kuminga
9
Jimmy Butler III
8
Brandin Podziemski
5
Kristaps Porziņģis
4
Stephen Curry
4
Gary Payton II
4
Draymond Green
4
Al Horford
4
Will Richard
4
Buddy Hield
4
Moses Moody
4
Quinten Post
4
Jimmy Butler III highlighted · bar = IC (0–100)
Among the 2025–26 field
79th percentile · #74 of 359 · -0.1σ vs the season mean
All-time, since 1997
77thpercentile
#2,148 of 9,465
Signals on file
105
Iso possessions
17.7%
Iso share
0.96
Iso PPP
5.2%
Fadeaway rate
24.7%
Pull-up rate
19
Clutch attempts
20.0
Points / game
23.3%
Usage
64.6%
True shooting