Hardwoodist Research InstituteBureau of Decision Studies
Pat Spencer
19.29
Irrational Confidence
+0.63
Confidence
willingness to put it up
-0.75
Merit
what the record warranted
The Bureau's readingIrrational Confidence — he shot it himself — past what the record warranted.
In context
The roster, by irrational confidence · 2025–26
A lone gunner.
De'Anthony Melton
44
Pat Spencer
19
Jonathan Kuminga
9
Jimmy Butler III
8
Brandin Podziemski
5
Kristaps Porziņģis
4
Stephen Curry
4
Gary Payton II
4
Draymond Green
4
Al Horford
4
Will Richard
4
Buddy Hield
4
Moses Moody
4
Quinten Post
4
Pat Spencer highlighted · bar = IC (0–100)
Among the 2025–26 field
89th percentile · #39 of 359 · +0.7σ vs the season mean
All-time, since 1997
89thpercentile
#1,000 of 9,465
Signals on file
34
Iso possessions
6.2%
Iso share
0.85
Iso PPP
7.6%
Fadeaway rate
45.1%
Pull-up rate
12
Clutch attempts
7.2
Points / game
18.9%
Usage
51.6%
True shooting