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The Counter-Register · Well, Actually

The Ones Who Actually Earned It

Reputation: reckless. Reality: prudent. (Or at least reasonably prudent.) Each backed themselves, but in these seasons at least, the record acquits them. Confidence, yes, but rational within the sample set.
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Check the verdict on anyone
No. 01
Jordan Clarkson
2020–21UTA
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.56
Confidence
+0.09
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 15.71 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 02
Jamal Crawford
2014–15LAC
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.36
Confidence
+0.22
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 10.03 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 03
Zach LaVine
2021–22CHI
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.38
Confidence
+0.26
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 9.57 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 04
Nick Van Exel
2003–04GSW
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.35
Confidence
+0.32
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 8.38 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 05
Nick Young
2008–09WAS
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.03
Confidence
+0.24
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 7.45 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 06
Ben Gordon
2006–07CHI
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.59
Confidence
+0.81
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 5.25 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 07
Jamal Murray
2024–25DEN
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.15
Confidence
+0.90
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 4.52 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 08
Jason Terry
2003–04ATL
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.00
Confidence
+0.86
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 4.43 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 09
JR Smith
2014–15CLE/NYK
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+0.25
Confidence
+0.85
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 3.84 — the Bureau concurs.