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The Counter-Register · Well, Actually

The Ones Who Actually Earned It

Reputation: reckless. Reality: prudent. (Or at least reasonably prudent.) Each backed themselves, but in these seasons at least, the record acquits them. Confidence, yes, but rational within the sample set.
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Check the verdict on anyone
No. 01
Jordan Clarkson
2020–21UTA
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.57
Confidence
+0.07
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 16.33 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 02
Jamal Crawford
2014–15LAC
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.37
Confidence
+0.18
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 10.98 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 03
Zach LaVine
2021–22CHI
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.39
Confidence
+0.25
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 9.77 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 04
Nick Van Exel
2003–04GSW
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.39
Confidence
+0.30
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 9.00 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 05
Nick Young
2008–09WAS
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.05
Confidence
+0.23
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 7.70 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 06
Ben Gordon
2006–07CHI
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.59
Confidence
+0.80
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 5.31 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 07
Jamal Murray
2024–25DEN
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.18
Confidence
+0.88
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 4.59 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 08
Jason Terry
2003–04ATL
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+1.01
Confidence
+0.83
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 4.48 — the Bureau concurs.
No. 09
JR Smith
2014–15CLE
Earned.
The record warranted the shots
+0.21
Confidence
+0.80
Merit
Irrational Confidence: 3.83 — the Bureau concurs.