HWRI · Department of Thermodynamics · Heat Check run
Jalen Brunson
2023–24 regular season · NYK
11 straight made jump shots. Odds if every shot were independent: 1 in 16,000
| Straight made jump shots | 11 | 9 from three |
|---|---|---|
| Odds if every shot were independent | 1 in 16,000 | his own rate from each spot; no defender data |
| The game | at PHX · Dec 15, 2023 · won 139–122 | |
| The run | From 2:39 left in the 2nd quarter to 1:46 left in the 4th | |
| At the rim | 2 made shots at the rim in between don't add to the run (they aren't jump shots) | |
| That night | 50 points, 17 of 23 from the field, 9 of 9 from three | |
| Shot 1 | 24 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 2 | 25 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 3 | 26 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 4 | 26 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 5 | 27 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 6 | 10 ft | make chance 54% |
| Shot 7 | 25 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 8 | 12 ft | make chance 54% |
| Shot 9 | 29 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 10 | 25 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
| Shot 11 | 25 ft (three) | make chance 39% |
How to read it
Each pill is one made jump shot, in order, labelled with its distance in feet and coloured cool (short) to hot (deep). A jump shot is any shot from 4+ feet that the NBA play-by-play doesn't log as a layup, dunk, tip or hook. Shots at the rim (layups, dunks, tip-ins, anything inside 4 feet) aren't jump shots: they neither extend nor end the run. A missed jump shot ends it. The odds multiply each make's probability, his own rate from that zone that season, nudged toward the league rate, as if every shot were independent. Defender distance isn't on record, so the odds can't account for how well each shot was guarded. Counted exactly as Heat Check's longest-run board counts it.