HWRI · Card RoomOct 22, 2026
HWRI · Bureau of Probability · Pythagorean Luck
Philadelphia 76ers
2011–12 regular season · PHI
Won 8 fewer games than their points scored and allowed predict
| Wins vs. predicted | −8 wins | 43.3 predicted, unrounded |
|---|---|---|
| Actual record | 35-31 | |
| Predicted record | 43-23 | from points scored and allowed |
| Points scored | 6,180 | 93.6 a game |
| Points allowed | 5,900 | 89.4 a game |
| Point differential a game | +4.2 | |
| Games decided by 5 or fewer | 5-10 | |
| Games decided by 3 or fewer | 1-4 |
How to read it
Expected wins come from the Pythagorean formula: a season's points scored and points allowed predict its winning percentage (games × PF^13.91 ÷ (PF^13.91 + PA^13.91), the NBA exponent Basketball-Reference cites). The solid bar is the actual record; the ghost bar behind it is the expected record, rounded to whole wins. A team-season appears here when the two differ by at least 4 wins and its record in close games (decided by 5 points or fewer) leans the same way: .500 or better for a team above its expected record, .500 or worse for one below it. Regular season only.