HWRI · Card RoomOct 20, 2026
HWRI · Bureau of Decision Studies · Shot-selection finding
Luka Dončić
2025–26 regular season · LAL
Finding: Efficient, and bold when hot
| Shoots more than his efficiency earns | 51st percentile | Irrational Confidence 4.4 · of 230 players |
|---|---|---|
| Fires from deeper when hot | 99th percentile | Heat Check 97 · of 230 players |
| Points per game | 33.5 | true shooting 61.6% · league 58.6% |
| Threes taken on a make streak | 384 | made 35.2% · 38.4% otherwise |
How to read it
Both axes are percentiles within the season, among players with at least 30 games and 1,000 minutes (prorated for shortened seasons). Across: how much more he shoots than his efficiency earns (HWRI's Irrational Confidence); high only counts with real volume (12+ shots a game). Up: how much farther out he shoots while on a 2+ make streak, against that season's average jumper (HWRI's Heat Check); it measures shot distance, not whether the shots fall. The hatched box is the corner the finding comes from.