HWRI · Card RoomOct 18, 2026
HWRI · Bureau of Probability · Pythagorean Luck
Charlotte Hornets
2025–26 regular season · CHA
Won 9 fewer games than their points scored and allowed predict
| Wins vs. predicted | −9 wins | 52.8 predicted, unrounded |
|---|---|---|
| Actual record | 44-38 | |
| Predicted record | 53-29 | from points scored and allowed |
| Points scored | 9,513 | 116.0 a game |
| Points allowed | 9,117 | 111.2 a game |
| Point differential a game | +4.8 | |
| Games decided by 5 or fewer | 5-11 | |
| Games decided by 3 or fewer | 3-6 |
How to read it
Expected wins come from the Pythagorean formula: a season's points scored and points allowed predict its winning percentage (games × PF^13.91 ÷ (PF^13.91 + PA^13.91), the NBA exponent Basketball-Reference cites). The solid bar is the actual record; the ghost bar behind it is the expected record, rounded to whole wins. A team-season appears here when the two differ by at least 4 wins and its record in close games (decided by 5 points or fewer) leans the same way: .500 or better for a team above its expected record, .500 or worse for one below it. Regular season only.