The Chris Paul Veto
2011–12The Chris Paul to the Lakers trade. One of the greatest what-ifs in modern history. The background - Chris Paul was plying his trade at an All-Star level for the New Orleans Hornets (now the New Orleans Pelicans; the Hornets name has since returned to Charlotte). It became clear it was time for him - and the team - to separate. There was only one problem - the team was "owned" by the league, making then-commissioner David Stern the de facto head of the team. There was still a putatively independent group in charge of day-to-day operations, led by Dell Demps, but final decision-making power was in the hands of the same person who oversaw the league at large.
Demps negotiated a three-way trade with the Lakers and Rockets that (reportedly) would have sent Paul to the Lakers, Lamar Odom, Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, and Goran Dragic to the Hornets, and Pau Gasol to Houston. For reasons that are still disputed, this trade was squashed, leading to a cascade of events, eventually landing Chris Paul with the Clippers.
We fed the counterfactual into the engine. These are the results. Hit the "re-simulate season" button to see a fresh season + playoffs run, with chance respecting the calculated odds.
LAL41w
Chris Paul
Chris Paul
Guard · 2011–12 · 36 mpg
19.8 / 3.6 / 9.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR 7.5Explore →
Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant
Forward-Guard · 2011–12 · 39 mpg
27.9 / 5.4 / 4.6 pts / reb / ast
HCR 2.8Explore →
Pau Gasol
Pau Gasol
Center-Forward · 2011–12 · 37 mpg
17.4 / 10.4 / 3.6 pts / reb / ast
HCR 2.8Explore →
Andrew Bynum
Andrew Bynum
Center · 2011–12 · 35 mpg
18.7 / 11.8 / 1.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR 2.0Explore →
Matt Barnes
Matt Barnes
Forward · 2011–12 · 23 mpg
7.8 / 5.5 / 2.0 pts / reb / ast
HCR 1.2Explore →
Jason Kapono
Jason Kapono
Forward · 2011–12 · 10 mpg
2.0 / 0.5 / 0.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.0Explore →
Darius Morris
Darius Morris
Guard · 2011–12 · 9 mpg
2.4 / 0.8 / 1.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.0Explore →
Metta World Peace
Metta World Peace
Forward · 2011–12 · 27 mpg
7.7 / 3.4 / 2.2 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.1Explore →
Ramon Sessions
Ramon Sessions
Guard · 2011–12 · 25 mpg
10.5 / 3.1 / 5.2 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.4Explore →
Troy Murphy
Troy Murphy
Forward-Center · 2011–12 · 16 mpg
3.2 / 3.2 / 0.9 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.8Explore →
Josh McRoberts
Josh McRoberts
Forward-Center · 2011–12 · 14 mpg
2.8 / 3.4 / 1.0 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.4Explore →
Steve Blake
Steve Blake
Guard · 2011–12 · 23 mpg
5.2 / 1.6 / 3.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.8Explore →
Derek Fisher
Derek Fisher
Guard · 2011–12 · 26 mpg
5.9 / 2.1 / 3.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR -3.3Explore →
NOH21w
Gustavo Ayon
Gustavo Ayon
2011–12 · 20 mpg
5.9 / 4.9 / 1.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR 1.9Explore →
Goran Dragic
Goran Dragic
Guard · 2011–12 · 27 mpg
11.7 / 2.5 / 5.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR 1.9Explore →
Kevin Martin
Kevin Martin
Guard · 2011–12 · 32 mpg
17.1 / 2.7 / 2.8 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.8Explore →
Trevor Ariza
Trevor Ariza
Forward · 2011–12 · 33 mpg
10.8 / 5.2 / 3.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.7Explore →
Jarrett Jack
Jarrett Jack
Guard · 2011–12 · 34 mpg
15.6 / 3.9 / 6.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.6Explore →
Greivis Vasquez
Greivis Vasquez
Guard · 2011–12 · 26 mpg
8.9 / 2.6 / 5.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.1Explore →
Jason Smith
Jason Smith
Forward-Center · 2011–12 · 24 mpg
9.9 / 4.9 / 0.9 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.1Explore →
Carl Landry
Carl Landry
Forward · 2011–12 · 24 mpg
12.5 / 5.2 / 0.9 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.5Explore →
Emeka Okafor
Emeka Okafor
Center · 2011–12 · 29 mpg
9.9 / 7.9 / 0.9 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.6Explore →
Al-Farouq Aminu
Al-Farouq Aminu
Forward · 2011–12 · 22 mpg
6.0 / 4.7 / 1.0 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.8Explore →
Luis Scola
Luis Scola
Forward · 2011–12 · 31 mpg
15.5 / 6.5 / 2.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.9Explore →
Chris Kaman
Chris Kaman
Center · 2011–12 · 29 mpg
13.1 / 7.7 / 2.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.0Explore →
Marco Belinelli
Marco Belinelli
Guard · 2011–12 · 30 mpg
11.8 / 2.6 / 1.5 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.1Explore →
Lamar Odom
Lamar Odom
Forward · 2011–12 · 21 mpg
6.6 / 4.2 / 1.7 pts / reb / ast
HCR -2.8Explore →
Xavier Henry
Xavier Henry
Forward-Guard · 2011–12 · 17 mpg
5.3 / 2.4 / 0.8 pts / reb / ast
HCR -2.8Explore →
Lance Thomas
Lance Thomas
Forward · 2011–12 · 15 mpg
4.0 / 3.0 / 0.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR -2.9Explore →
HOU34w
Kyle Lowry
Kyle Lowry
Guard · 2011–12 · 32 mpg
14.3 / 4.5 / 6.6 pts / reb / ast
HCR 3.2Explore →
Pau Gasol
Pau Gasol
Center-Forward · 2011–12 · 37 mpg
17.4 / 10.4 / 3.6 pts / reb / ast
HCR 2.8Explore →
Marcus Camby
Marcus Camby
Center-Forward · 2011–12 · 22 mpg
3.8 / 8.9 / 1.9 pts / reb / ast
HCR 2.2Explore →
Goran Dragic
Goran Dragic
Guard · 2011–12 · 27 mpg
11.7 / 2.5 / 5.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR 1.9Explore →
Chandler Parsons
Chandler Parsons
Forward · 2011–12 · 29 mpg
9.5 / 4.8 / 2.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.9Explore →
Chase Budinger
Chase Budinger
Forward · 2011–12 · 22 mpg
9.6 / 3.7 / 1.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.8Explore →
Kevin Martin
Kevin Martin
Guard · 2011–12 · 32 mpg
17.1 / 2.7 / 2.8 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.8Explore →
Samuel Dalembert
Samuel Dalembert
Center · 2011–12 · 22 mpg
7.5 / 7.0 / 0.5 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.7Explore →
Courtney Lee
Courtney Lee
Guard · 2011–12 · 30 mpg
11.4 / 2.7 / 1.5 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.5Explore →
Luis Scola
Luis Scola
Forward · 2011–12 · 31 mpg
15.5 / 6.5 / 2.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.9Explore →
Terrence Williams
Terrence Williams
Guard-Forward · 2011–12 · 21 mpg
8.8 / 4.1 / 3.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.4Explore →
Jordan Hill
Jordan Hill
Forward-Center · 2011–12 · 15 mpg
5.0 / 4.8 / 0.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.5Explore →
Patrick Patterson
Patrick Patterson
Forward · 2011–12 · 23 mpg
7.7 / 4.5 / 0.8 pts / reb / ast
HCR -2.6Explore →
LAC40w
Chris Paul
Chris Paul
Guard · 2011–12 · 36 mpg
19.8 / 3.6 / 9.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR 7.5Explore →
Blake Griffin
Blake Griffin
Forward · 2011–12 · 36 mpg
20.7 / 10.9 / 3.2 pts / reb / ast
HCR 3.3Explore →
Chauncey Billups
Chauncey Billups
Guard · 2011–12 · 30 mpg
15.0 / 2.5 / 4.0 pts / reb / ast
HCR 1.2Explore →
DeAndre Jordan
DeAndre Jordan
Center · 2011–12 · 27 mpg
7.4 / 8.3 / 0.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.4Explore →
Ryan Gomes
Ryan Gomes
Forward · 2011–12 · 13 mpg
2.3 / 1.9 / 0.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR 0.0Explore →
Randy Foye
Randy Foye
Guard · 2011–12 · 26 mpg
11.0 / 2.1 / 2.2 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.0Explore →
Mo Williams
Mo Williams
Guard · 2011–12 · 28 mpg
13.2 / 1.9 / 3.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.4Explore →
Eric Bledsoe
Eric Bledsoe
Guard · 2011–12 · 12 mpg
3.3 / 1.6 / 1.7 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.6Explore →
Al-Farouq Aminu
Al-Farouq Aminu
Forward · 2011–12 · 22 mpg
6.0 / 4.7 / 1.0 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.8Explore →
Caron Butler
Caron Butler
Forward · 2011–12 · 30 mpg
12.0 / 3.7 / 1.2 pts / reb / ast
HCR -0.9Explore →
Chris Kaman
Chris Kaman
Center · 2011–12 · 29 mpg
13.1 / 7.7 / 2.1 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.0Explore →
Kenyon Martin
Kenyon Martin
Forward · 2011–12 · 22 mpg
5.2 / 4.3 / 0.4 pts / reb / ast
HCR -1.6Explore →
Nick Young
Nick Young
Guard-Forward · 2011–12 · 30 mpg
16.6 / 2.4 / 1.2 pts / reb / ast
HCR -2.4Explore →
Reggie Evans
Reggie Evans
Center-Forward · 2011–12 · 14 mpg
1.9 / 4.8 / 0.3 pts / reb / ast
HCR -2.5Explore →
The rest of the league made playoffs
SAS
50
CHI
50
OKC
47
MIA
46♛
IND
42
MEM
41
LAL
41
LAC
40
ATL
40
BOS
39
DEN
38
ORL
37
DAL
36
NYK
36
UTA
36
PHI
35
HOU
34
PHX
33
MIL
31
POR
28
MIN
26
DET
25
GSW
23
TOR
23
NJN
22
SAC
22
CLE
21
NOH
21
WAS
20
CHA
7
* A seeded simulation — one plausible alternate season, reproducible from its seed, not a prediction. Or perhaps a portal to an alternate dimension.
The actual FinalsMiami Heat def. Oklahoma City ThunderBest record: SAS, CHI (50 wins)
Championship oddstitles won across 300 seeded re-runs
MIA30%
SAS20%
CHI18%
the field 19%
Los Angeles Lakers 1%New Orleans Hornets 0%Houston Rockets 7%Los Angeles Clippers 5%
Each re-run re-rolls every game’s bounces from the same rosters — the bar is how often each team ends up champion, so it weighs the likelihood, not a single outcome.
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