Hardwoodist Research Institute

Thermal Instrumentation Lab

HWRI‑PLR‑AQHJ‑37LK‑8SBO‑12UE‑8F0D

Bulletin HC-04 · Rev. 3.4

Department of Thermodynamics & Shot-Streak Telemetry

Heat Check

A calibrated score of a shooter’s audacity while hot — how far past the season’s ambient jumper distance a shooter dares to fire once they’re on a streak.

The score in one sentence

HEAT CHECK: a 0–100 score of how far past the season’s average jumper a player dares to fire while on a make-streak — willingness and audacity, measured.

Read the formula →

Browse all 200 seasons →

Instrument

Distance pyrometer

Measurand

heat_check_tendency

Scale

0–100 · 50 = ambient

Reference

Moving era baseline

Coverage

1997–2025

Recorded by

N. Joompbaal

Approved

The Hardwoodist

Plate I · Thermal distance survey

Where the heat goes

Each strip is one player-season’s distribution of shots taken while hot — defined as a live 2+ made-jumper streak. The vertical ember line is that season’s ambient: the league-average jumper distance. Trace colour runs cool at the rim and incandescent the further past ambient a shot is fired. Audacity is the heat to the right of the line.

Pyrometer · channel HOT-STATE · units feet from basket

Hot-shot distance traces, indexed to season ambient

AmbientIncandescent

Stephen Curry

2015–16

deep-3 flamethrower

100

tend.

Damian Lillard

2019–20

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

Luka Dončić

2023–24

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

Kobe Bryant

2005–06

mid-range furnace

tend.

Trae Young

2021–22

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

James Harden

2018–19

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

Klay Thompson

2014–15

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

Ray Allen

2005–06

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

Michael Jordan

1996–97

mid-range furnace

tend.

Tim Hardaway

1998–99

deep-3 flamethrower

tend.

distance from basket (ft) — ember line = season ambient jumper distance

at/near ambientbold (past ambient)incandescent (deep three on a streak)The all-time pantheon, one peak season per shooter.

Plate II · The moving ambient

Every season has a hottest hand

The hottest player-season of each year, plotted on the league’s rising ambient. The baseline climbs from 16.5 ft to nearly 20 ft across the record. This demonstrates both that the instrument is era-relative by design, and how much the shooting diet has changed over the years.

’25Stephen Curry96 ’24Luka Dončić98 ’23Stephen Curry96 ’22Trae Young97 ’21Stephen Curry99 ’20Damian Lillard98 ’19Stephen Curry98 ’18Damian Lillard93 ’17Stephen Curry97 ’16Stephen Curry100 ’15Stephen Curry98 ’14Stephen Curry98 ’13Stephen Curry99 ’12Kobe Bryant93 ’11Kobe Bryant96 ’10Aaron Brooks94 ’09Mike Bibby93 ’08Joe Johnson92 ’07Kobe Bryant97 ’06Kobe Bryant98 ’05Tracy McGrady95 ’04Tracy McGrady95 ’03Kobe Bryant96 ’02Ray Allen95 ’01Vince Carter95 ’00Ray Allen97 ’99Tim Hardaway96 ’98Reggie Miller94 ’97Michael Jordan97

Plate III · Bench telemetry

The Microwaves

Restrict the instrument to reserves — defined as players who started a fifth of their games or fewer. How much of our perception of the Sixth Man is anchored around the idea of Instant offense, which is more or less a product of Heat check willingness. (Unfortunately Vinnie Johnson, the original Microwave, predates our instruments, but the inheritors of his mantle are all over our list.)

Specimen	Tend.	Hot jmp.	Started	Deep 3s	Archetype
Terrence Ross2018–19 · ORL	90	147	0/81	19	Deep-3 flamethrower
Payton Pritchard★ 6MOY2024–25 · BOS	89	106	3/80	50	Deep-3 flamethrower
Jamal Crawford★ 6MOY2009–10 · ATL	89	130	0/79	5	Deep-3 flamethrower
JR Smith2009–10 · DEN	88	102	0/75	18	Deep-3 flamethrower
Dee Brown1998–99 · TOR	88	51	0/49	4	Deep-3 flamethrower
Jason Terry2009–10 · DAL	86	131	12/77	7	Mid-range furnace
Tracy Murray1997–98 · WAS	85	121	12/82	2	Mid-range furnace
Lou Williams★ 6MOY2014–15 · TOR	83	94	0/80	8	Deep-3 flamethrower

Plate IV · The cabinet

Lesser-known specimens

Deeper cut player/seasons that reward a second look — names the headline leaderboard never surfaces, but are interesting nonetheless.

JJ Redick

2014–15 · LAC

tend.

Would coach Redick allow such daring shot-taking?

ambient 17.7'161 hot jmp78/78 GS

Peja Stojakovic

2003–04 · SAC

tend.

The catch-and-shoot legend.

ambient 16.7'164 hot jmp81/81 GS

Aaron Brooks

2009–10 · HOU

tend.

Tiny-PG Most Improved breakout.

ambient 17.6'147 hot jmp82/82 GS

Cuttino Mobley

2001–02 · HOU

tend.

The gunner of gunners.

ambient 16.6'170 hot jmp74/74 GS

Sam Cassell

2003–04 · MIN

tend.

Mid-range maestro during the first “big balls dance” season.

ambient 16.7'235 hot jmp81/81 GS

Mike Miller

2006–07 · MEM

tend.

The pre-Heat sniper as a featured Grizzly.

ambient 17.5'112 hot jmp69/70 GS

Dell Curry

1998–99 · MIL

tend.

The gene — Steph’s (and Seth’s) dad off the bench.

ambient 16.1'55 hot jmp0/42 GS

Davis Bertans

2019–20 · WAS

tend.

The “Latvian Laser,” contract-year heater.

ambient 19.9'76 hot jmp4/54 GS

Nick Young

2010–11 · WAS

tend.

Swaggy P, enough said.

ambient 17.2'135 hot jmp40/64 GS

Plate V · The hot-hand test

Tendency, not accuracy

Heat Check records how boldly a player fires while hot — not whether the shots fall. As noted above, this is contextualized by season in our metric. The Institute ran the rigorous test and confirmed findings from many other studies: across every qualifying career, is a player statistically likely to shoot better on the attempt right after a run of makes?

He is not.

The hot hand, bias-corrected

The effect of being on a make-streak is negative at every streak length, and grows more negative the longer the run. Field goals (287 players): −0.7 / −1.0 / −1.2 pp after 1 / 2 / 3 straight makes. Threes only (171 players): −1.0 / −1.5 / −1.7 pp. Of ≈1,374 player-by-streak tests, just three showed a significant positive hot hand — fewer than chance alone would produce.

Players shoot slightly worse after a run, never better. Correlated factors — e.g., the deeper shot, additional defensive attention, pure random luck — swamp any other signal. So a hot season here is a record of willingness, not success. (That is, success relative to a player’s baseline.) The canonical heat check — he’s heating up, keep feeding him — is a myth the record simply does not support.

Plate VI · The title board

The longest heat check

If the hot hand is an observed fact within statistical explanation, the individual, thrilling runs themselves are not. These are the longest streaks of made jumpers on record since 1997 — counted exactly as the instrument counts them, a single miss ending the run. (Rim attempts, made or missed, free throws, and other player attempts are excepted.) Beside each is the night it happened and the odds of it happening at all, were every shot independent.

made jumpers in a row

≈ 1 in 430,000

chance of the run, under independence

Kyrie Irving

2024–25 · DAL

@ DEN · Nov 10, 2024 · L 120–122

43 PTS · 17/22 FG · 6/8 3P · 35 MIN

The run, shot by shot — distance in feet (hover a shot)

9′27′14′17′12′23′4′13′13′28′31′28′23′19′15′

№	Specimen	Run	The night	Box	Odds The chance the whole run lands if every attempt were independent. Each shot's make probability is the shooter's own season rate from that exact zone, shrunk toward the league rate — so the player's real skill is built in. That is why a longer run by an elite shooter can rate likelier than a shorter run by a streakier gunner. Defender distance isn't in the record, so read these as a floor on the improbability, not a verdict on difficulty.
002	Jamal Crawford2006–07 · NYK	13	vs MIA · Jan 26, 2007 · W 116–96	52 PTS · 20/30 FG · 8/10 3P · 39 MIN	1 in 470,000
	vs MIA · Jan 26, 2007 · W 116–9652 PTS · 20/30 FG · 8/10 3P · 39 MIN 23′18′27′23′23′26′7′11′25′25′26′21′12′
003	Arron Afflalo2015–16 · NYK	12	vs ATL · Jan 3, 2016 · W 111–97	38 PTS · 14/17 FG · 7/8 3P · 37 MIN	1 in 110,000
	vs ATL · Jan 3, 2016 · W 111–9738 PTS · 14/17 FG · 7/8 3P · 37 MIN 16′4′26′11′25′26′26′26′18′13′26′26′
004	Klay Thompson2018–19 · GSW	12	@ LAL · Jan 21, 2019 · W 130–111	44 PTS · 17/20 FG · 10/11 3P · 27 MIN	1 in 50,000
	@ LAL · Jan 21, 2019 · W 130–11144 PTS · 17/20 FG · 10/11 3P · 27 MIN 25′19′13′25′27′25′25′26′25′26′26′28′
005	Michael Jordan1996–97 · CHI	12	@ CHH · Nov 15, 1996 · W 110–87	38 PTS · 15/25 FG · 4/5 3P · 29 MIN	1 in 9,000
	@ CHH · Nov 15, 1996 · W 110–8738 PTS · 15/25 FG · 4/5 3P · 29 MIN 22′18′14′24′16′22′15′15′18′22′19′18′
006	Glen Rice1996–97 · CHH	12	vs IND · Jan 29, 1997 · L 95–106	34 PTS · 13/22 FG · 2/7 3P · 39 MIN	1 in 4,200
	vs IND · Jan 29, 1997 · L 95–10634 PTS · 13/22 FG · 2/7 3P · 39 MIN 22′21′10′15′16′19′14′23′13′21′20′19′
007	Chris Bosh2006–07 · TOR	11	vs WAS · Jan 31, 2007 · W 119–109	34 PTS · 15/19 FG · 1/1 3P · 39 MIN	1 in 76,000
	vs WAS · Jan 31, 2007 · W 119–10934 PTS · 15/19 FG · 1/1 3P · 39 MIN 5′20′16′9′19′16′10′12′55′15′6′
008	Willie Green2010–11 · NOH	11	vs PHX · Apr 8, 2011 · W 109–97	31 PTS · 12/17 FG · 5/6 3P · 31 MIN	1 in 35,000
	vs PHX · Apr 8, 2011 · W 109–9731 PTS · 12/17 FG · 5/6 3P · 31 MIN 26′16′25′20′10′12′26′14′25′17′26′
009	Jalen Brunson2023–24 · NYK	11	@ PHX · Dec 15, 2023 · W 139–122	50 PTS · 17/23 FG · 9/9 3P · 35 MIN	1 in 16,000
	@ PHX · Dec 15, 2023 · W 139–12250 PTS · 17/23 FG · 9/9 3P · 35 MIN 24′25′26′26′27′10′25′12′29′25′25′
010	Reggie Miller1996–97 · IND	11	@ CHH · Jan 29, 1997 · W 106–95	40 PTS · 14/22 FG · 6/9 3P · 35 MIN	1 in 14,000
	@ CHH · Jan 29, 1997 · W 106–9540 PTS · 14/22 FG · 6/9 3P · 35 MIN 23′20′19′23′10′15′22′22′22′20′23′
011	Jamal Murray2020–21 · DEN	11	@ CLE · Feb 19, 2021 · W 120–103	50 PTS · 21/25 FG · 8/10 3P · 38 MIN	1 in 14,000
	@ CLE · Feb 19, 2021 · W 120–10350 PTS · 21/25 FG · 8/10 3P · 38 MIN 4′24′25′16′17′23′27′26′29′32′6′
012	David West2006–07 · NOK	11	@ HOU · Apr 14, 2007 · L 112–123	33 PTS · 14/19 FG · 1/1 3P · 42 MIN	1 in 13,000
	@ HOU · Apr 14, 2007 · L 112–12333 PTS · 14/19 FG · 1/1 3P · 42 MIN 15′15′13′16′7′6′12′15′19′13′8′
013	Kobe Bryant2009–10 · LAL	11	vs DET · Nov 17, 2009 · W 106–93	40 PTS · 17/29 FG · 1/3 3P · 39 MIN	1 in 5,500
	vs DET · Nov 17, 2009 · W 106–9340 PTS · 17/29 FG · 1/3 3P · 39 MIN 12′14′18′16′20′8′7′14′16′12′5′
014	Anthony Morrow2009–10 · GSW	11	@ NOH · Mar 8, 2010 · L 131–135	28 PTS · 11/13 FG · 6/6 3P · 38 MIN	1 in 4,800
	@ NOH · Mar 8, 2010 · L 131–13528 PTS · 11/13 FG · 6/6 3P · 38 MIN 24′9′24′14′19′10′25′25′27′23′7′
015	Steve Nash2007–08 · PHX	11	vs MIL · Jan 12, 2008 · W 122–114	35 PTS · 13/17 FG · 5/7 3P · 34 MIN	1 in 2,500
	vs MIL · Jan 12, 2008 · W 122–11435 PTS · 13/17 FG · 5/7 3P · 34 MIN 8′20′16′8′17′24′24′19′25′25′13′

Below the board — season-best runs by length, every qualifying player-season:10309778237761361,280

⚠ SpoilerAggregate Statistical UnlikelihoodExpand to review the statistical underpinnings of the various hot streaks.

Each run above is, on its own, deeply unlikely — Mr. Irving’s fifteen is a 1-in-430,000 event. The fair question follows: across thirty seasons and millions of attempts, how unlikely is the board itself? We ran the numbers.

We took every qualifying player-season’s actual game-by-game jumper counts, treated each jumper as independent at that player’s own season make rate, and reset the streak every tip. Summed over some 410,000 player-games, that yields how many runs of each length chance alone should produce.

Run length	Expected by chance	Observed
≥ 11	~14.3	16
≥ 12	~4.7	6
≥ 13	~1.5	2
≥ 15	0.16	1

The board is very nearly what randomness alone would produce. The eleven- and twelve-shot runs are well within the margin of error: chance alone would predict about fourteen of the former, and there are sixteen. The only entry the math did not neatly predict is the fifteen — expected count 0.16, roughly one-in-seven to exist at all. And no one has a sixteen, because until we near 200 seasons, no one should (expected 0.05).

A genuine hot hand would manufacture more long runs than independence predicts; we observe something much nearer the predicted number. That the runs themselves are the product of volume, skill, and luck does not take away from the reality and excitement of them. It simply argues against them being attributable to an additional skill. But after all, basketball is a game, and chance is what delivers the unpredictable. (No doubt the Basketball Theology Department would disagree, but they were not consulted on this experiment.)

Per-game independence model · qualifying player-seasons · regular season, 1997–2025.

Notes on the instrument · for the record

A player enters hot state on his second consecutive made jumper. While hot, the pyrometer logs each subsequent jumper’s distance against the season’s ambient. Boldness accrues as a softplus of the surplus distance — so daring to launch from well past ambient registers, while a catch-and-shoot at the line barely moves the needle. Rim attempts are transparent to the channel.

heat_check_tendency = norm( Σ softplus( shot_dist − ambient_season ) over hot-state jumpers ) ∈ [0,100]

The instrument measures willingness, not reward. Every player in these plates cooled toward his own mean as the run went on; the audacity is the only part of “feeling it” the telemetry can honestly see. We report what the gauge reads and decline to speculate further.

Filed by Nils Joompbaal, Thermal Instrumentation Lab.

Approved for release — with the usual reservations — by The Hardwoodist.

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